For the startup ecosystem in India, the scorecard so far has been a mixed bag, observes Akhil Gupta.
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'Auto, pharma, and industrials have delivered well in the recent quarter, while businesses like quick-service restaurants, consumer staples, and durables have underperformed in volume growth.'
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Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
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'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
'The success of one or two IPOs does not dictate whether the upcoming IPOs will be successful or not, but it certainly indicates that the markets and investors are enthusiastic about startup IPOs.'
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
Notwithstanding robust volume growth and a strong performance from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Tata Motors, the country's second-largest automobile (auto) manufacturer by market capitalisation, disappointed the Street with its January-March quarter (Q4) results for 2023-24 (FY24). While consolidated revenues saw a 13 per cent increase, lower-than-expected realisations in the Indian operations weighed down overall performance.
'Opportunity is there in each segment of the market. There is opportunity in affordable and specifically governed by government initiatives as well as for housing for all.'
Yes Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 6.74 per cent, followed by TCS, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, M&M and RIL.
Mutual funds (MFs) have lined up information technology (IT) funds, indicating that technology stocks are back on fund managers' radar after a hiatus. Over the past 18 months, stock prices for companies in the software space have either corrected or remained subdued. Fund houses have launched five IT-based sectoral funds in the past three months, with three of them taking the passive route.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
ICICI Bank reported good results for the October-December 2023 quarter (Q3), with 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in profit after tax (PAT). Net interest margin (NIM) dropped 10 bps quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to 4.43 per cent. Credit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (4 per cent Q-o-Q), while deposit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (3 per cent Q-o-Q).
There could be near-term margin pressures for lifestyle accessories major Titan Company. Even as the company maintains its growth outlook over the medium term, it has revised its margin guidance for the jewellery segment downwards. The company has adjusted its medium-term margin guidance to 12 per cent from the previous range of 12-13 per cent.
Funding winter and corporate governance woes separated the men from the boys in the country's startup space in 2023 that saw funds into the segment tapering to just around $8 billion. All said, investors are hopeful of strong growth of the maturing startup ecosystem in the new year. Edtech and health tech segments that grew exponentially during the pandemic plunged into an abyss of financial uncertainties, with several firms shuttering their business, and valuation of prominent players like BYJU'S and PharmEasy plummeting 85-90 per cent.
The gap between the highs and the lows in April for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was just 4.1 per cent - the narrowest since July 2021 and nearly half its three-year average. The absence of major positive triggers, sectoral rotation, and cautiousness due to earnings and economic uncertainty have kept a tight leash on the markets, observe experts. Remarkably enough, during the 17 trading sessions in April, the Sensex didn't even log an advance or a decline of more than 1 per cent.
State-run Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) reported a weak performance in the fourth quarter of FY24 (January-March 2024), and the turmoil in the energy market indicates it could endure another lacklustre quarter. The oil marketing company (OMC) reported an Ebitda of Rs 10,400 crore, down 27 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to weak reported gross refining margin (GRM) of $8.4 per barrel in Q4FY24, which was almost half the consensus expectation of $15 per barrel.
Good results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and strong seasonal demand have led to strong investor interest in Crompton Greaves (CG) Consumer Electricals which is hitting new highs. While there's bullish consensus on the company's future performance, the stock has gained over 40 per cent in the last six months and valuations may become stretched. The Q4FY24 revenue rose 9.5 per cent YoY to Rs 1,960 crore.
Companies, which missed out on listing earlier, are giving it another shot but with significantly-reduced issue sizes. In the recent past, companies such as TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Suraj Estate Developers, and ESAF Small Finance Bank have re-filed their draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). This came after they slashed their issue sizes by 20-60 per cent.
Shares of public sector enterprises have corrected by up to 22 per cent month-to-date until March 19, 2024. Analysts attribute this steep fall to the valuation exuberance seen after a sharp run in these counters last year and suggest investors remain selective regarding the stocks in this space. "The rally in public sector undertaking (PSU) stocks has been stretched and sharp, although it is somewhat justified by improvements seen in earnings, operations, balance sheets, and overall profitability.
Economic growth, which we are taking for granted, slows for a completely different set of local or global factors and the Modi premium vanishes, observes Debashis Basu.
If Hindenburg or its partner do not join the investigation, then Sebi may pass an ex-parte order against it, which may be enforced as a foreign award in US courts.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
After a sharp rally in the equities market this year, investors could be better off rotating some funds towards the debt market. Experts believe several tailwinds could spur bond market returns over the next 12-18 months. These include India's robust macroeconomics, declining inflation, and the imminent passive flows of close to Rs 2.5 trillion on account of domestic sovereign bonds getting included in the JP Morgan global indices.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro, HCL Technologies, NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra and Tata Consultancy Services were the major laggards. IT stocks fell on profit-taking after rallying sharply in the past two sessions. Tata Steel, Titan, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and JSW Steel were among the gainers.
The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
Investors may increase exposure to mid and small-cap stocks as their risk-reward profile is more attractive currently, suggest Nitin Singh and Vinay Joseph.
From its lows this month, the stock of Sona BLW Precision Forgings is up 10 per cent on better-than-expected results. The stock rose by 4 per cent in the trading session on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei Group said the Indian automotive component major has topped its rankings in terms of competitive advantage. The rankings are based on sales, profit margin, capital expenditure, research and development, and market capitalisation.
It's raining IPOs, with eight issues hitting the market in a span of six days. However, the pace of new filings points to a deluge during the latter part of the year. So far this year, 58 companies have filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator for initial public offerings (IPOs), exceeding the combined tally of 50 in the last two years. Industry participants said the filing count could cross 100 this year, setting a new benchmark in terms of amount mobilised in a calendar year.
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Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
The fundamental debate remains where you stand on the long-term growth question. That is what every investor must monitor and come to their own conclusions, suggests Akash Prakash.
The BSE mid-cap and small-cap stocks have outperformed the benchmark Sensex in 2023-24 with about 62 per cent returns, reflecting buoyant investors' sentiment amid robust macroeconomic conditions in the country and impressive quarterly earnings reported by various firms. As per an analysis, the BSE mid-cap gauge jumped 15,013.95 points or 62.38 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal, while the small-cap index climbed 16,068.99 points or 59.60 per cent. In comparison, the 30-share BSE Sensex raked in a gain of 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent during the fiscal under review.
Even as net flows into smallcap funds in March turned negative, for the first time in 30 months, they remained a big draw for new investors. The smallcap fund category saw a net of 360,000 investment accounts, or folios, getting added last month, the second-most among all active equity categories. Smallcap funds' continued traction could be driven by their strong performance across timeframes, say experts.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore in the 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings. After a muted performance in 2022-23, equity markets made a remarkable recovery in FY24, giving handsome returns to investors. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in 2023-24.
Titan's October-December quarter (Q3) business update claims 22-23 per cent revenue growth in the standalone jewellery sales (excluding bullion sales), implying a 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3 per cent. Store additions also looked healthy, with 21 new Tanishq stores opened in Q3, taking the total count to 466 (+43 in 9 months of FY24) including two in the US and one in Singapore. Titan added 90 stores in Q3, pushing its total retail outlets to 2,949 (including CaratLane).
